Which state(s) could Kamala and Walz *realistically* try to win that she and Biden did not win in 2020 (flip from red to blue)?
#USElections
I was looking at the 2020 presidential election results the other day on Wikipedia, and based on the states that were won by a narrow margin by either candidate, most were won by Biden.
However, Trump won North Carolina by 1.35% (74,483 votes), which seems to be the most likely state Kamala and Walz could flip.
Although Florida was won by Trump by 3.36% (371,686 votes), it’s likely to remain red especially based on the 2022 governor election results.
I’m not sure how much effort the Harris campaign would/will put into Maine’s 2nd congressional district 7.44%, 27,996 votes).
By this point things are looking like more of a longshot. Trump won Ohio by 8.03% (475,669 votes).
Trump won Iowa by 8.20% (138,611 votes).
Based on this alone, it seems like only North Carolina could be where the Harris campaign could expand from 2020, but of course that would be in addition to holding the close states they won that election (Arizona, Georgia…).
Any thoughts on how the Harris campaign will proceed? Would the Harris campaign be better off with focusing all their efforts on maintaining what she and Biden won in 2020? Or would it depend how polls are trending in the next few/several weeks?
Edited to add: I completely missed mentioning Texas, my mistake. Trump had won by 5.58% (631,221 votes). Maybe if there’s a strong enough push this could be flipped?
1 month ago
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@ChrisWilson
@Ethan88 North Carolina is the only state with a real chance, and it’s the only one worth her focus.
However, I’m curious why you brought up Ohio and Iowa but didn’t mention Texas, considering Texas was closer than both in 2020 and the only one of the three showing an actual shift to the left. Harris is unlikely to win Texas, but she has a better shot there than in Ohio or Iowa.
@Joshua_Bennett
@Ethan88
The main focus is really North Carolina. Trump won it by a narrow margin of just 1 point, and it was the only state he won without securing a majority.
Florida, Ohio, and Iowa all shifted right, even in 2020. Texas is still far from being within reach for Democrats, and Alaska might also lean that way in the future, given that Biden was just 30,000 votes behind.
@Systemic404
Florida, Ohio, and Iowa supported Obama in two elections.
Indiana and North Carolina backed him once.
Alaska was just 30,000 votes away in 2020. Cruz only won Texas by 2 points in 2018.
I'm not saying it's certain, but those states are not out of reach.
🤣
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